Forecasting filters

For you Fermi filter fanatics, be sure to check out Katja Grace's recent honour's thesis, "Anthropic principles agree on bigger future filters":

My main point was that two popular anthropic reasoning principles, the Self Indication Assumption (SIA) and the Self Sampling Assumption (SSA), as well as Full Non-indexical Conditioning (FNC) basically agree that future filter steps will be larger than we otherwise think, including the many future filter steps that are existential risks.

And be sure to check out the insights from Robin Hanson and Michael Anissimov.